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Mounting concerns are present about the potential of warfare among Horn of Africa countries, the Ethiopian government and the Eritrean government, as aggressive rhetoric has ratcheted up in the last month.

What Has Ethiopia Stated?

Landlocked Ethiopia's requests for access to the maritime outlet through Eritrea has provoked a heated war of words.

The Ethiopian leader initially stated publicly in last year that his nation's sea access was an crucial concern, remarks that Eritrean authorities ignored.

Diplomatic connections between the both governments have regularly been difficult. Following a prolonged struggle for freedom, Eritrea, which has a 1,350km (840-mile) Red Sea coastline, officially seceded from Ethiopia in 1993, rendering it landlocked.

Five years later, a military clash erupted in which over a hundred thousand people were killed.

Latest Remarks from Ethiopia's Leadership

Prime Minister Abiy and army chief the army commander have directly stated ownership of Eritrea's maritime facility of the port of Assab – about 60km from the boundary - and hinted at the wish to take it by force.

Recently, the Prime Minister said the country's "error" of losing access to the sea as a result of Eritrea secession would be "addressed soon".

The Ethiopian envoy to neighboring Kenya, ex-military officer Bacha, said that Assab was "Ethiopia's wealth" and would be returned "using武力".

Eritrea's Reaction to the Statements

Amid continuous threats from Ethiopia, Eritrea's response has been restricted to concise remarks on X from Communications Head the minister.

He has rejected Ethiopia's demand for sea access calling it "dangerous" and a "harmful plan" of "irredentism" – a strategy of claiming back previous domains.

Government spokespeople warned on mid-September that moves to justify "obvious provocation" would have serious consequences for the Ethiopian government and its regional partners and is a "limit that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Defense Activities on the Ground

There have been few indications of significant troop deployments in the border areas between the neighboring states.

Nevertheless, in Ethiopia, state television has displayed graduation ceremonies of numerous trainees at different defense facilities.

The director of personnel division of the military, Lt Gen Hachalu Sheleme, recently said in an interview that the military was in a "strong stance" as "numerous of recruits" were entering service, which he said was "a message to our enemies".

Historical Background of the Tension

For decades from 1890, Eritrea was administered by colonial powers.

Following World War II, it was then administered by the British military before turning into a integrated region of the Ethiopian empire.

Yet in the early 1960s the ruler ended this arrangement and the region became fully incorporated into the Ethiopian state.

A three-decade long civil war ensued, concluding with the government's loss in 1991. Sovereignty was then confirmed by the population in a referendum in 1993.

Temporarily in the 1990s, there were positive ties between the authorities in Ethiopia's capital and Asmara, but they fell out over the specific demarcation of their mutual frontier, leading to war in 1998.

Though this ended in a peace deal in 2000, it was never fully implemented, and the two nations remained at odds.

This changed in 2018, when the Prime Minister made gestures to Eritrea's leader the president. The both leaders agreed to a announcement that the conflict was concluded – a decision that gained the Prime Minister the international recognition.

The two governments were then cooperators in Ethiopia's 2020-2022 armed struggle in the northern region.

But diplomatic connections have since broken down once more.