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China has sent its coast guard into the maritime area of the Diaoyu islands and unmanned aerial vehicles near outlying Japanese territory as Beijing escalates strains following the Japan's leader's comments regarding Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

This past Sunday, the Chinese coast guard stated that its ships conducted a “lawful patrol operation” through the waters of the Diaoyu islands, which are under the control of Tokyo but also asserted as territory by Beijing.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation performed surveillance within the maritime jurisdiction of the Diaoyu islands. This was a lawful patrol operation undertaken by the Chinese maritime authorities to protect its sovereign claims,” the statement said.

Diplomatic Spat

Beijing and Tokyo have consistently clashed around the disputed territory but the recent developments come amid an escalating political dispute after the Japan's leader, Sanae Takaichi, addressed lawmakers that if China attack democratically ruled Taiwan it might provoke a military response from Japan.

That sparked an angry response from Beijing, which has indicated it demands a withdrawal from Takaichi.

Taiwan's Position

Beijing asserts the island as its sovereign land and plans to incorporate it under what it describes as “unification”. It has not ruled out the military option. Taiwan’s government and people categorically refuse the idea of Beijing's control – choosing to preserve the status quo without formally announcing independence, but vowing to defend themselves if required.

An attack or invasion by China would risk escalating into a regional or global conflict, possibly drawing in the US and other partner nations including Tokyo, which has land just 110km (68 miles) from the island.

Military Activity

On the island, the defence ministry said on Sunday morning that it had detected 30 Chinese military aircraft, seven navy ships and one “official” ship, which was likely the maritime patrol, active near the island over the previous day.

Official charts released showed up to three drones flying between Taiwan and the Japanese islands off its north-east coast, seeming to travel particularly close to Yonaguni. PLA movements there are occasional, but infrequent, and Beijing's defense operations in the island's ADIZ generally has been low in recent weeks.

Late on Saturday, the ministry said China had been carrying out another “combined military exercise” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It added Taiwan had dispatched military assets to track the developments. The island reports such Chinese patrols a few times monthly as part of what Taipei says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Diplomatic Pressure

Tokyo has been facing mounting pressure from Beijing since the Japanese official made her remarks, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in Osaka prompting a formal protest from Japan by commenting that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

China then called in Japan's diplomat for the first occasion since 2023, and China’s defence ministry declared that any Tokyo's involvement would be doomed to fail.

Travel and Education Advisory

Late last week, Beijing advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “appropriate measures”, though it provided no details.

Three Chinese airlines announced this weekend that flights to Tokyo could be cancelled without penalty.

In another escalation, Beijing's administration on the weekend advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it described as an volatile safety situation.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a significant decrease in the population of learners from China could have a detrimental effect on academic institutions in Japan. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to official data. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the single biggest group.

Official Commentary

Earlier this weekend, a official press commentary charged the Japanese official with performing a diplomatic maneuver that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a limited skirmish; it would probably involve other nations, including the US, and could rapidly escalate to a major confrontation with unimaginable consequences.”

Strategic Positions

The government of Taiwan says only its people can decide its future. Officials in Tokyo have previously avoided publicly mentioning Taiwan when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also favoured by Tokyo’s main security ally, the United States.

Nevertheless, Beijing's governing party says the incorporation of the island with the People’s Republic of China is “inevitable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, Beijing has also been increasing its political operations and its rhetoric towards Taiwan.