A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Both composes two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has got something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
